Chancellor John Healey Weighs a Bank Tax Rise in the Autumn Budget

The chancellor is weighing a higher tax on UK bank profits, and the cost could reach Caribbean payments through correspondent banks.

Chancellor John Healey is weighing a higher tax on the profits of Britain's largest banks ahead of the Autumn Budget. The bank surcharge applies to profits above £100 million, according to Deloitte's summary of the rules. The Press Association reported on October 1, 2026 that Healey has summoned the chief executives of the largest UK banks to an in-person meeting before the Budget, according to Sky News reports, and that the Treasury did not comment on them. The government has not said what it will do.

The case against

The industry has pushed back. Chris Hayward, policy chairman of the City of London Corporation, has called for no bank windfall tax and no other sector-specific tax rises. David Postings, chief executive of UK Finance, says the increasingly cumulative tax burden on the financial sector threatens the UK's position as a global financial hub. Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan, has warned that raising the surcharge on banks' profits could push investment to other countries. The Press Association reported these positions on October 1, 2026.

What it means beyond London

For Caribbean readers, the question is less about London than about the price of capital and the plumbing of payments. Caribbean banks settle many cross-border payments through a small number of correspondent banks abroad, and that channel is the one a tax on large UK banks could reach.

The channel has already narrowed. An Atlantic Council issue brief published on September 6, 2023 reported that 21 of the 23 members of the Caribbean Association of Banks had lost at least one correspondent banking relationship, as of a 2017 survey. Using SWIFT data for 2011 to 2020, the brief found that Belize, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Dominica, The Bahamas and Jamaica each saw counterparties fall by more than 40 percent.

The surcharge would not sit on that list directly. The Ledger's reading is that banks price the cost of holding a relationship, so a higher UK tax that raises the cost of a large bank's balance sheet could make the smallest correspondent relationships the first to be reviewed. That is a hypothesis, not a reported finding. The Ledger has not found published data that traces a UK bank surcharge to Caribbean correspondent relationships, and it will not treat the mechanism as proven until it does.

The practical questions for regional business are narrower: whether a higher UK tax changes the price or availability of sterling and dollar clearing for regional banks, whether it changes the cost of trade finance for importers, and whether it affects remittance corridors that run through London. Each has a clear answer only once the Budget sets the rate and threshold.

The region has its own version of this trade-off. Governments that want banks to pay more must weigh the revenue against the risk that the banks, or the business they bring, move elsewhere. The UK debate is a useful test case for any Caribbean finance minister weighing a sector tax.

What to watch: the Budget and its final rate and threshold, any statement from UK banks on correspondent costs, and whether Caribbean regulators or the Caribbean Association of Banks publish updated relationship counts.