Netflix’s subscriber slowdown: where the Caribbean fits

Netflix shares fell more than 5% on October 20, 2026, after third-quarter results and a softer outlook. Its own figures show viewing hours up just 2% in the first half of 2026.

Netflix’s shares fell 5%, and the growth question is now open

Netflix shares fell more than 5% on October 20, 2026, after third-quarter results and a softer outlook. Revenue reached $12.87 billion, up 11.8% from a year earlier. The company stopped reporting subscriber counts each quarter in 2025, so growth is harder to track. Its own figures show viewing hours up just 2% in the first half of 2026. This piece looks at why, who is gaining viewers, and where the Caribbean fits.

Sources: TheWrap, Netflix Q3 2026 earnings; Malay Mail, October 21, 2026.

Five years of paid memberships

Growth was fastest in 2023 and 2024. Netflix then stopped quarterly counts, so the 2025 figure is a milestone, not a like-for-like quarterly comparison.

Why growth is slowing

Four reasons stand out in the company’s own statements.

Engagement is flat. Subscribers watched 97 billion hours in the first half of 2026, up just 2% on a year earlier.

The U.S. is lagging. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos said: "We do need better execution in the US."

Advertising is behind plan. The ad business grew more than 80% in 2026, but co-CEO Greg Peters said it is "a bit behind our aggressive target." Full-year ad sales are now about $2.7 billion, down from $3 billion.

Content leadership changed. Chief content officer Bela Bajaria was replaced by former Disney executive Peter Rice, and about 6% of the workforce is being cut.

Sources: Malay Mail, October 21, 2026; TheWrap, Q3 2026 earnings.

Where the viewers are going

The clearest rival is YouTube. Nielsen’s July 2026 data put Netflix at 7.8% of U.S. streaming TV viewing, against 14.2% for YouTube. TheWrap also cites rising competition from YouTube as a drag on Netflix’s growth.

Investors describe a wider field. Portfolio manager John Belton of Gabelli Funds told AFP that competition comes from other streamers, gaming and sport. The collapse of Warner Bros. Discovery’s $83 billion deal also shaped the sector’s outlook, according to TheWrap.

The latest reported figures are uneven and not like-for-like. Netflix reported over 325 million paid memberships at the end of 2025. Warner Bros. Discovery reported nearly 132 million streaming subscribers across HBO Max and its other services on the same date. Amazon reports about 315 million monthly ad-supported Prime Video viewers, which measures viewers, not paid subscribers. Disney no longer discloses Hulu subscriber counts, so Hulu has no comparable figure.

A cycle or a shift?

The evidence leans toward a shift. Netflix added a record 41 million paid memberships in 2024, and its growth has since moved away from subscriber counts. The company now reports revenue and engagement instead.

Netflix has faced a slowdown before. In the first quarter of 2022 it lost 200,000 paid subscribers, its first loss in more than a decade. By midday on April 20, 2022, its shares stood at $219.13, down from about $350 before the results.

Three signals point the same way. Engagement grew 2% in the first half of 2026. Advertising sales are behind target. Netflix has stopped reporting quarterly member counts.

The case for a cycle is that revenue is still growing. Netflix expects 2026 revenue of $51.1 billion, up 13%, and its co-CEO says retention is "healthy" in every region. A cycle would show engagement picking up again. The first half of 2026 did not show that.

The test for any rival is the same one Netflix passed. It has to win the viewing hours, not just the subscriptions.

Sources: Netflix 2024 shareholder letter, SEC filing; TheWrap, Q3 2026 earnings; Malay Mail, October 21, 2026.

Netflix’s pivot to live sport

Netflix’s NFL push began with Christmas Day in 2024 and continued in 2025. Its two 2025 Christmas Day games fell on Thursday, December 25, 2025. Dallas Cowboys against Washington Commanders kicked off at 1 p.m. ET, and Detroit Lions against Minnesota Vikings at 4:30 p.m. ET. Both streamed globally to subscribers.

The 2024 Christmas games reached 65 million U.S. viewers, according to Nielsen as reported by TheWrap. That sets a high bar for 2026.

Boxing is next. Tyson Fury against Anthony Joshua is scheduled for Netflix in December 2026. Netflix’s stated sports push also covers the Olympics, the World Cup and WWE.

Sources: Netflix Tudum, NFL Christmas Day 2025 kickoff times; TheWrap, May 14, 2025; The Viewer’s Perspective, September 24, 2026; Malay Mail, October 21, 2026.

What the Caribbean has to offer

Jamaica’s strongest card is athletics. At Paris 2024, Jamaica won six medals, one gold and three silver and two bronze, from a team of 58 athletes. All six came from track and field. Jamaica’s population was 2,764,200 at the end of 2025, so its athletes punch far above their numbers.

The population is also shrinking at the margin. Net migration cost Jamaica 7,000 people in 2025, nearly offsetting natural growth of 7,600.

The Caribbean’s record with Netflix is thinner. Bandi, a family drama filmed in Martinique, premiered on April 9, 2026, with eight episodes. Netflix said it would not extend the series. Richès Karayib reported that visibility, including Netflix’s international rankings, was not judged enough to cover production costs.

The claim that track and field is the least followed sport is plausible but untested here. This piece has no viewing data for athletics to support or rebut it.

Sources: Wikipedia, Jamaica at the 2024 Summer Olympics; Jamaica Observer, July 12, 2026, citing PIOJ; Richès Karayib, May 8, 2026.

How the Caribbean could win for Netflix before 2028

The analysis below is this piece’s view, not reported fact.

The strongest offer is a story with a clock. The 2028 Los Angeles Olympics give a natural window for a documentary or series built around a Jamaican athletics squad. Netflix is already pushing into live sport and shorter-form content.

The Martinique case shows the risk. A regional series needs an audience plan before it needs a cast. Without viewing data that proves reach, a series is harder to renew, as Bandi shows.

The diaspora is the third lever. Jamaica’s 2025 net migration loss suggests many of its people and their families live abroad, mainly in North America. This piece has not sized that audience, and that is the first number to find.

What we will watch

Whether view hours growth picks up from 2% in the first half of 2026.

The Tyson Fury against Anthony Joshua fight on Netflix in December 2026, as a test of live events.

Peter Rice’s first content slate as Netflix’s new content chief.

The ad-supported tier’s launch in 15 new countries in 2027, starting in March with nine European markets plus Colombia, Peru and New Zealand.

Source credit: this piece draws on Financial Times reporting on Netflix’s October 2026 results, as shared on the FT’s LinkedIn page, and on the company statements and reports cited above.